Composite decking and railing products manufacturer Trex Company (NYSE:TREX) reported revenue ahead of Wall Street’s expectations in Q1 CY2025, but sales fell by 9% year on year to $340 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.60 per share was in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy TREX? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
Trex (TREX) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $340 million vs analyst estimates of $328.4 million (9% year-on-year decline, 3.5% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.60 vs analyst estimates of $0.59 (in line)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $95.91 million vs analyst estimates of $99.59 million (28.2% margin, 3.7% miss)
- Operating Margin: 24%, down from 31.9% in the same quarter last year
- Organic Revenue fell 9% year on year (56.5% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $6.12 billion
StockStory’s Take
Management pointed to robust demand for Trex’s premium composite decking and railing products as a key factor behind higher-than-expected sales in the latest quarter, despite a year-over-year revenue decline. CEO Bryan Fairbanks highlighted that new product launches contributed 22% of trailing 12-month sales, more than twice last year’s level, underscoring the company’s emphasis on portfolio innovation. Channel inventory practices also played a role, with the company implementing a new inventory strategy to reduce volatility and better align production with market demand. Management also cited distribution enhancements and dealer conversions as supporting factors during the quarter.
Looking ahead, management expects mid to high-single-digit sales growth for the year, supported by continued momentum in premium and entry-level product lines and further expansion in the railing segment. Fairbanks expressed confidence that Trex will outperform the broader repair and remodel market, referencing pent-up demand and market share gains as drivers. CFO Brenda Lovcik added that margin improvements are anticipated in the second half, as costs associated with product changeovers and new manufacturing initiatives subside. Management remains watchful of potential headwinds, such as tariffs on aluminum and steel, but has initiated mitigation strategies including supplier diversification and inventory planning.
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
Management attributed quarterly results to strong uptake of recently launched products, expanded dealer relationships, and ongoing investments in manufacturing and digital transformation.
- New product launches: Products introduced in the past three years now account for 22% of sales, with management highlighting consumer and contractor enthusiasm for features like the SunComfortable technology, originally developed for the Transcend Lineage line and now expanded to other offerings.
- Dealer conversions and channel strategy: Trex accelerated dealer conversions and TrexPro contractor recruitment, aided by last year’s distribution enhancements, leading to improved brand alignment and market reach.
- Inventory strategy shift: The company’s new approach to inventory management aims to reduce quarterly volatility and ensure partners are stocked appropriately, allowing more consistent production and improved operating efficiency.
- Manufacturing investment: The Arkansas campus began producing recycled plastic pellets, reducing reliance on external suppliers and supporting cost efficiency across manufacturing sites. This milestone advances Trex’s broader continuous improvement program.
- Segment performance: While demand for premium products remained strong, the entry-level segment began to recover, supported by refined product specifications and expanded color options in the mid-tier Select line. Railing products also saw double-digit growth, benefiting from expanded distributor partnerships.
Drivers of Future Performance
Trex’s management sees product innovation, distribution expansion, and operational improvements as central to its growth and margin outlook for the remainder of the year.
- Product mix evolution: Continued investment in new products, including expanded color options and proprietary technologies, is expected to drive share gains in both the premium and entry-level segments. Management believes this will help Trex outpace the broader repair and remodel market.
- Operational efficiency gains: The ongoing ramp-up of the Arkansas manufacturing campus and continuous improvement initiatives are projected to enhance margins, particularly as costs tied to product transitions diminish in the second half of the year.
- Tariff and supply chain mitigation: While less than 5% of cost of sales is directly exposed to tariffs, Trex is taking proactive steps such as supplier diversification, inventory pre-builds, and negotiations with vendors to offset potential cost pressures. Management is monitoring the regulatory environment for further impacts.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will watch (1) whether new product introductions continue to gain traction among both contractors and consumers, (2) the pace and impact of expanded distributor relationships on geographic and segment growth, and (3) margin progression as the Arkansas facility ramps up and one-time costs decline. Execution on inventory management and tariff mitigation will also remain important indicators of operational effectiveness.
Trex currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 25.8×. In the wake of earnings, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).
Our Favorite Stocks Right Now
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election sent major indices to all-time highs, but stocks have retraced as investors debate the health of the economy and the potential impact of tariffs.
While this leaves much uncertainty around 2025, a few companies are poised for long-term gains regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate, like our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).
Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Comfort Systems (+782% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.